Session 1: Geopolitics & Trade – Cutting Through the Noise
April 2026
Te Taumata’s Online Regional Series opens with Session 1, providing an in-depth and timely overview of global geopolitical developments and their direct implications for trade and the New Zealand economy.
This session, presented by Kelly Eckhold, examines the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East and the disruption to global energy markets, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It outlines how these events are impacting global oil supply chains, refinery activity across Asia, and fuel availability—driving sharp increases in oil prices and refining margins.
The presentation highlights the likely flow-on effects for Aotearoa New Zealand, including increased fuel costs (with petrol prices projected to reach approximately $3.30–$3.40 per litre), pressure on supply chains, and risks to fuel inventories. It also explores broader economic consequences, including downgraded GDP growth forecasts, declining consumer and business confidence, reduced visitor arrivals, and a slowdown in the housing market.
This session is designed to help stakeholders understand the interconnected nature of geopolitics and trade, and to provide clarity on how global instability may shape the operating environment for Māori businesses, exporters, and communities.
Key discussion areas include:
- Global geopolitical developments and trade disruption
- Closure of key energy supply routes and impacts on oil markets
- Fuel price increases and implications for New Zealand households and businesses
- Revised economic forecasts and sector-level impacts
- Risks to trade, tourism, and supply chains
- What this means for Māori exporters and the wider Māori economy
Session slides
Access the full presentation HERE
